Climate Change Predictions Suggest Extreme Flooding Globally, Experts Warn

(Photo : Getty Images/Bernard BARRON )

Experts warned that communities must better prepare for floods in their homes and businesses as climate change predictions suggest more intense flooding around the world.

State Funded Engineering Solution

Lindsey McEwen, Professor of Environmental Management, presents a number of studies demonstrating that more extreme flooding is likely in industrialized countries, with a growing impact on people.

In addition to the growing impact of climate change, the economic worth of floodplain assets is increasing.

According to research, annual flood damage in Europe might increase from EUR 5.3 billion to EUR 40 billion by 2050, with the number of people affected rising from 200 thousand to more than 0.5 million.

McEwen collects evidence from current research, policy, and practice literature on community-focused flood risk management and draws on over 20 years of research and experience working with diverse at-risk communities to outline misconceptions and barriers to risk management, as well as opportunities for progress.

She claims that the first myth about flood mitigation is that it can be solved solely through state-funded engineering solutions.

"Investing in large infrastructure projects as the sole flood management solution simply hasn't reduced ecological, financial and even sentimental losses. Investment in defensive infrastructure alone, with its costs and design limits, can only be part of the solution," she added.

Residual risk refers to the danger that remains after any flood risk management measures have been taken, such as by government agencies. McEwen contends that successful risk management requires all stakeholders, with an 'urgent urgency' for the public to accept some responsibility for residual flood risk and their own protection.

Flood risk management is all about shifting the emphasis from reactive measures to prevention and resilience at the household and community levels.

Much of the residual risk management needs to happen at a local level, but people may not have the required information, skills, or resources to do so, McEwen argues.

Local flood risk management involves non-governmental organizations (NGOs), community flood groups, small companies, and local cultural and media actors, in addition to government agencies.

Critical Public Perception

The public's perception of responsibility for residual risk minimization is critical.

Flood risk management requires networks, collaboration, and communication, as well as increased participation from local communities as critical stakeholders. In other contexts, structural measures, generally adopted by the government, counteract design risk, yet residual risk remains.

McEwen outlines why many experts now believe local communities play vital roles in flood risk management and disaster risk reduction.

Even when non-structural flood risk management measures, such as land-zoning, are implemented by the government or other actors, they frequently require community awareness and agency to be effective, such as interacting with early flood warning systems.

McEwen added that one of the challenges with community resilience is that some people may perceive it as a "government retreat in responsibility" rather than working alongside legislative efforts.

"A key question is how to increase community participation and agency when there is expectation of a key role of the state still pervades. There is a wider perceived disconnect between citizens and water in the developed world," she explains.