Scientists have warned that if no significant reduction in global warming is achieved by 2050, the Arctic tundra's unique vegetation will vanish.
The effects of the Siberian larch forests' steady northward growth have been studied by experts at the Alfred Wegener Institute's (AWI) Center for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven, northern Germany.
Their computer simulation indicates that the rapid expansion poses a significant threat to the tundra's unique vegetation, which includes dwarf shrubs, grasses, mosses, and lichens.
Only about 5% of the tundra vegetation can be found in the Arctic. Rare species such as reindeer, snow owls, polar bears, and lemmings live in the tundra. The AWI's Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems Division is led by Professor Ulrike Herzschuh.
According to Herzschuh, current and future warming will have serious consequences for the Arctic Ocean and sea ice, but the environment on land will also change dramatically.
The vast expanses of tundra in Siberia and North America will be drastically reduced shortly as the treeline, which is already slowly shifting northward, rapidly advances.
The Worst-Case Scenario
In the worst-case scenario, the scientists predicted that by the middle of the millennium, there would be virtually no tundra left. Herzschuh explained that they simulated this process for the tundra in northeast Russia in their research.
The team's main concern, according to Herzschuh, was which emissions path humanity needed to take to preserve the tundra as a refuge for flora and fauna.
Only consistent, global climate protection measures, according to Herzschuh and her colleagues, will allow around 30% of the Siberian tundra to survive until the middle of the millennium.
Scientists believe that all other, less favorable scenarios will result in the extinction of the unique habitat. According to AWI scientists, the average temperature in the High North has risen by more than 2 °C in the last 50 years.
They stressed that this was a significantly higher increase than anywhere else on the planet. Larch forests are currently spreading northward at a rate of up to 20 miles per decade, according to the computer simulation.
Read also: Beavers Head Towards the Arctic Tundra as Heat Due to Climate Change Rises
In 30 years
By the year 2050, just less than 6% of today's tundra would remain in the majority of the AWI experts' scenarios. Highly effective global initiatives are essential to rescue 30%.
The tundra spans approximately 4,464,600 square miles. It has a lot of nitrogen and phosphorus in its soil.
The tundra soil, on the other hand, contains a lot of biomass and decomposed biomass that has been stored as methane and carbon dioxide in the permafrost, making it a carbon sink.
The permafrost carbon cycle accelerates as climate change accelerates soil thawing, releasing much of the soil-contained greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, creating a feedback cycle that accelerates climate change.
The Siberian tundra is on the verge of extinction, according to Eva Klebelsberg, a project manager with the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Germany.
According to Klebelsberg, larger areas can only be saved if climate protection targets are set very high.
Even then, in the best-case scenario, there will be two distinct refuges, each with smaller flora and fauna populations that are highly susceptible to disrupting influences.
If humanity continues on its current path, this ecosystem will eventually vanish, according to Klebelsberg.
Related article: Climate Change to be Blamed for Northward Shifts Recorded in Earth's Coldest Forests
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