Magnitude 4.2 Earthquake Shakes Istanbul Area

A magnitude 4.2 earthquake hit Istanbul on Thursday afternoon, 4:38 pm local time. The quake caused locals of the most populous city to panic momentarily.

The quake hit the Marmara Sea, off the coastal town of Marmara Ereğlisi at a depth of 6.8 kilometers.

No damage or casualties have been reported. 

The earthquakes of the recent magnitude do not usually come with a significant hazard but since the region is greatly affected by the active and dangerous Anatolian fault system which can produce devastating earthquakes of magnitudes six to seven. 

Istanbul has a population of  15 million and is the most populated city in Turkey. Experts have predicted that the city will experience a significant earthquake anytime.

Several studies have shown that a significant earthquake is inevitable, and the question is not if a major tremor will happen but more of when it will occur. 

Last year, a 5.8 magnitude earthquake hit the city, the biggest one in the city's memory. The tremors were mild, but it sent people out on streets panicking for their safety. 

READ: Powerful 7.8 Quake Hits Alaska, Tsunami Warning Canceled

Istanbul Earthquake Predictions 

On January 24, a magnitude 6.7 earthquake shook Elazig province, killing dozens of people. Days after the disaster, Interior Minister Sulyman Soylu announced a chilling prediction that Istanbul should prepare for a magnitude 7.5 earthquake. 

The Turkish scientific community is in consensus that a major quake is bound to happen in Istanbul. In the next 30 years, the probability of a 7.4 magnitude tremor is approximately 35 to 40 percent. 

Experts say that a major quake in or around Istanbul happens every 250 years. The last big one occurred 254 years ago, and it had a magnitude of 6.4. Another tremor in 1509 had a greater magnitude: 7.0 and the Turkish folklore call it "little doomsday."

READ ALSO: Earthquake Swarm Near San Andreas Fault, California at Big Quake Risk This Week 

Istanbul is located on the western side of the Northern Anatolian Fault zone. The fault has caused five significant tremors. In 1939, the country suffered the Erzincan quake with magnitude 7.2, while the Marmara quake in 1999 had a magnitude of 7.6. 

In preparation for the big quake, successive governments of the AK Party allocated approximately 4.3 billion liras or $724 million to replace or 56,000 risky infrastructures, the Environment & Urbanization Ministry said.

The Mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, said the allocation is not enough as the major quake could impact or even cause death to tens of thousands of people. "Our priority is to make Istanbul a city resistant to disasters," the mayor said.

The Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute estimates that if a 7.5. magnitude earthquake would happen, the potential impact is that almost one-fifth of Istanbul's 1.2 million building will likely sustain medium to severe damage, and may likely result in 12,000 deaths, and 20 billion dollars loss of properties.

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