Heavy Rains, Earthquake Strike China, Residents Fear Landslides and Dam Spillage

The possibility of a landslide that would compromise the safety of Three Gorges Dam has sparked fears among residents as an earthquake struck Sichuan early Thursday (July 2) morning.

Southern China has been experiencing torrential rains for 31 straight days, and the event of an earthquake has raised speculations among citizens on the integrity of the dam to withstand such weather events.

Chinese seismologist known as Feng Tian Lao Wang (奉天老王) in YouTube made predictions on June 26 that the flooding in Yangtze River Basin will peak on July 2, and an earthquake will also happen on the said day.

He raised concerns that this will worsen the situation in the Three Gorges Dam, and a "catastrophe" may strike the river basin on the same day. He also advised residents living near the dam and the basin to make the necessary preparations in anticipation of flooding.

A heavy warning was raised across China for the 31 straight days by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). 

On July 2, a magnitude 3.2 earthquake also struck at 4:07 AM on the same day. The quake shook Zoige County in Sichuan Province at 8-kilometer depth, the China Earthquake Network Center announced.

Despite the relatively weak earthquake magnitude, depth of the earthquake, and the month-long torrential rains in southwest China sparked fears of an increased landslide. The Zoige County, the site of the quake, is upper areas of the Three Gorges Dam.

It was also on July 2 that an urgent warning from Changjiang Water Resources Commission (CWRC) announced that the upper areas of Yangtze River could experience the "Yangtze River's No. 1 flood of 2020" (長江2020年第1號洪水). As of 10 AM on July 2, the water in the Three Gorges Reservoir reached  47,000 cubic meters per second.

CWRC also issued a "blue alert" for Wujiang River as it reached 191.7 meters on July 2. Wujiang River is the region where the Three Gorges Reservoir is located.

Heavy rains are expected on Thursday (July 2, 8 AM) to Friday (July 3, 8 AM) in southern Jianghan, western and south Jianghuai, northern Jiangnan, central Yunnan, south Guizhou, southern Hubei, north of Hunan, south Anhui, and northeastern Jiangxi.

Since June, 250 rivers across China have witnessed floods above warning levels, primarily in the regions of Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Sichuan, Chongqing, and Anhui, Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) official Wang Zhangli said

Another Chinese You Tuber named Li Yiping (李一平) said on June 30 that the floods this year are worst than that in 1998. He also said that if an earthquake occurred in the upper areas of the Yangtze River, smaller dams might collapse, leading to a domino effect where one dam will fall after another.

Should this happen, Li said that the Three Gorges Dam would have a tremendous strain from the floodwaters that it would eventually collapse.

Li emphasized that Three Gorges Dam sits on two major fault lines, the Jiuwanxi and Zigui-Badong.

Three Gorges Dam is also vulnerable to reservoir-induced seismicity, a phenomenon that leads to earthquakes due to tremendous changes in water pressure from flooding. This may trigger landslides that would worsen the flooding in the area and threaten the integrity of the dam.

Chinese officials have repeatedly allayed that the dam would collapse, saying these are "non-sense."