Forecasters warn that this year's "extremely active" season will bring an unprecedented number of Atlantic hurricanes.
The findings by Colorado State University forecast more than 20 named storms in 2024, the most since the team began forecasting 20 years ago.
Projected Hurricanes
According to the projection, there might be 23 named storms from June to November, including 11 hurricanes and five "major" hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
The previous highest April projection called for nine hurricanes.
There is a 62% chance that hurricanes will make landfall in the United States this year. There is a 34% possibility along the US east coast and 42% along the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle to Brownsville, Texas. A hurricane is likely to make landfall in the Caribbean 66% of the time.
An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of which develop into hurricanes and three of which become significant cyclones.
Last year, three significant hurricanes formed among seven hurricanes and 20 named storms, the fourth-highest total since 1950. Idalia, the most destructive, ripped up the west coast of Florida and made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane.
Read Also: 2023 Hurricane Season Nearing Its Peak With Potential Storm Brewing In Eastern Pacific
Record-Breaking Ocean Temperature
Researchers highlighted record-breaking ocean temperatures as a major contributing factor, as warm water increases cyclone power. 2023 was the hottest year in recorded history, and 2024 has the potential to break that record.
The water in the Atlantic, especially where storms begin, has been record-warm.
A warm Atlantic in the spring usually indicates warmer water during hurricane season because it prevents water-cooling winds from forming. Furthermore, greater warmer water increases the likelihood of storms.
"A very warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane's fuel source is warm ocean water. In addition, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricanes," the release said.
La Niña, a periodic climate phenomenon, is likely to impact the hurricane season from June 1 to November 30. La Niña reduces vertical wind shear from the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, promoting storm formation and strengthening.
According to a March projection from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there is a 55% likelihood of La Niña developing between June and August and a 77% chance from September to November.
The predictions were based on a combination of statistical models from the United Kingdom, Europe, and Japan that analyzed 25-40 years of historical hurricane data and parameters such as wind, sea surface temperatures, and pressure.
The study anticipated that storm activity in 2024 would be approximately 170 percent of the average season between 1991 and 2020.
In comparison, 2023's hurricane activity was almost 120% of the typical season, ranking fourth in the Atlantic basin's 70-year record with 20 named storms.
Hurricane Idalia was the only hurricane to make landfall in the United States, hitting Florida on August 30 at Keaton Beach as a Category 3 storm with winds up to 12 feet and widespread rainfall flooding. Eight individuals perished, and the damages totaled $3.6 billion.
Scientists believe that the climate issue has exacerbated hurricanes.
Related Article: Dramatic La Niña Return Possible Before Peak Of 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
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