Next Possible Earthquake After Prolonged Quiet Period in California Could Yeild 1800 Deaths, 50K Injuries

Experts are pondering the likelihood that the following earthquake in California, which will come after the current quiet period, will result in 1800 fatalities and 50k injuries.

The devastating earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria this week serves as the most recent reminder of the potential consequences for California as well as other seismically active regions.

Following the earthquakes in the 1980s and 1990s, some Californian cities have retrofitted or destroyed problematic buildings. However, not all of the state's structures have been subjected to the same degree of violent shaking as those in Syria and Turkey.

Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake, Turkey

On the East Anatolian fault, an earthquake of magnitude 7.8 occurred on Monday at 4:17 AM local time. Syria and the country's southeast have both experienced aftershocks.

Nine hours later, a strong magnitude 7.5 aftershock with an epicenter located 60 miles to the northeast struck on a different fault, causing additional destruction.

San Andreas

Research geophysicist Kate Scharer from the US Geological Survey noted that the San Andreas fault has the potential to undergo similar activity. The fault has previously experienced earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.8 in 1906 and 1857. She continued by saying it was critical to be ready for these eventualities.

Seismologist Lucy Jones from Caltech said that earthquakes happen at random times. Furthermore, there is no way to predict when it will occur. According to Jones, it has been relatively quiet in comparison to the long-term average for a while.

Earthquakes and the Devastation

The size of the collapsed buildings in Syria and Turkey could be the result of a variety of things, like corruption and fraud during safety inspections or poor design techniques. Mexico, Taiwan, and New Zealand have all experienced these problems, according to reports from Taiwan News and the NZ Herald. Buildings made of brittle concrete run the risk of collapsing, as happened during the Sylmar earthquake in 1971 and the Northridge earthquake in 1994, according to structural engineers.

According to structural engineer David Cocke of Gardena-based Structural Focus and president of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, some of the collapsed buildings appear to have been made of non-ductile concrete, which allows concrete to erupt from columns when shaken due to insufficient steel reinforcing bars.

After a magnitude 7.1 earthquake hit Mexico in 2017, videos started to circulate online.

Some of the collapses took place many hours after the mainshock that occurred in the early morning, according to experts who compare the new buildings in Turkey to those in California. Van experienced significant shaking in 2011 as a result of an earthquake in eastern Turkey with a magnitude of 7.1.

An aftershock with a magnitude of 7.5 occurred at 1:24 PM. When large diagonal cracks in the building that resemble the letter X are visible, this is one of the first warning signs of a weak structure. According to Scharer, the first earthquake weakens the building, and when a significant aftershock comes through, it strikes with a one-two punch.

Also Read: Strong Earthquakes in California Came After Magnetic Field Changes, Study Shows 

California Earthquake

A magnitude 7.8 earthquake in California would cause far more widespread damage than the earthquakes of the previous century. Researchers concluded that it was plausible that in Southern California, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake could result in nearly 1800 deaths, 50k injuries, and the destruction of major utilities supplying fuel, power, and water. This was based on a US Geological Survey simulation of the earthquake.

A simulation showing a magnitude 7 earthquake in Northern California on the Hayward fault to the east of San Francisco revealed that there might be at least 800 fatalities from the earthquake and hundreds more from subsequent fires.

In either case, California would experience its deadliest earthquakes in more than a century. According to the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Center, a magnitude 7.5 earthquake on the Puente Hills fault, which runs beneath densely populated areas of LA and Orange counties, could kill 3,000 to 18,000 people.

Seismic Zones Around the World

With long, established faults and on land, California and Turkey are two of the seismically active regions in the entire world. Because Turkey's central region is wedged between the Arabian and European plates, the East and North Anatolian faults in that country are of the same type as the San Andreas fault. Additionally, the land beneath that region is seismically active.

According to Jones, the two largest earthquakes in Turkey occurred 60 miles apart at their epicenters, and aftershocks can happen elsewhere. There are numerous aftershocks on other faults, LA Times reports.

Related Article: Could Recent Cascadia Earthquakes in California Herald "The Big One," Long Overdue Catastrophic Seismic Activity?