The Nord Stream Gas Leaks Raise Climate Concerns, but the Damage Is Difficult to Measure; Germany Suspects Sabotage

Unknown leaks in two Russian gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea are spewing out greenhouse gas emissions, sparking concerns that the interruption might trigger a climate disaster, albeit the amount of the damage is unknown.

Neither pipeline was operational, but both carried natural gas, which is primarily made of methane, a strong greenhouse gas that is the second most significant driver of climate change after CO2.

Nord Stream gas leaks raise climate fears

(Photo : Andreas Rentz/Getty Images)
The Siemens gas turbine intended for the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline in Russia is pictured at a Siemens Energy facility on August 03, 2022 in Muelheim an der Ruhr, Germany.

There are many unknowns, but if these pipelines break, the climatic impact would be severe, maybe unparalleled, according to atmospheric chemist David McCabe, senior scientist of the non-profit Clean Air Task Force, as per The Inquirer.

According to McCabe and other emissions experts, it is not yet possible to estimate the size of the leak due to uncertainties surrounding factors, such as the temperature of the gas in the pipeline, the rate at which it is leaking, and how much gas would be absorbed by microbes in the water before reaching the surface.

However, because both Nord Stream pipelines carried primarily methane, McCabe is concerned about the possibility of a big and extremely destructive emission event.

Methane has more than 80 times the planet-warming potency of carbon dioxide over a 20-year time span and around 30 times its potency over a 100-year time span.

Scientists believed that drastic reductions in methane emissions over the next several years will be a critical tool in combating climate change.

According to Jasmin Cooper, a research associate at Imperial College London's Sustainable Gas Institute, quantifying exactly how much gas was reaching the atmosphere would be challenging, especially given the scarcity of data on breaches from undersea pipes.

Gazprom would most likely have an estimate based on gas throughputs, but in terms of how much gas/methane is released into the atmosphere, she added, referring to the state-owned Russian gas business.

According to Jean-Francois Gauthier, vice president of measurements at the commercial methane-measuring satellite firm GHGSat, a "conservative estimate" based on available data suggested that the leaks released more than 500 metric tons of methane per hour when first breached, with the pressure and flow rate decreasing over time.

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Germany Suspects Sabotage Over Nord Stream Gas Pipeline Leaks

The Nord Stream pipelines, which transported natural gas from Russia to Germany, are leaking, and Germany suspects the damage is the result of sabotage as tensions between Europe and Russia remain high, as per Gizmodo.

Nord Stream is a large pipeline project that connects Russia's natural gas supply to Germany, but a recent leak has the German government fearful that the pipeline has been destroyed.

According to a news statement issued by military authorities, three leaks were discovered in the Baltic Sea to the northeast and south of the Danish island of Bornholm.

According to Bloomberg, a German security officer argued that the disclosures were generated by a purposeful act rather than a technical fault.

On Monday, Swedish seismologists observed two explosions, one of which occurred at 2:03 a.m. one at 7:04 p.m. local time, and the other at 7:04 p.m.

According to Uppsala University seismologist Peter Schmidt, the explosions matched the positions of pipeline breaches.

The pipeline network is made up of two pipes, Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, which stretch 2,456 kilometers (1,526 miles) beneath the Baltic Sea.

Nord Stream 1 has an annual capacity of 55 billion cubic meters (1.9 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas, whereas Nord Stream 2 is not yet operational but would more than quadruple this number.

While neither pipeline was running at the time of the incidents, they did carry natural gas, resulting in regions of bubbling water in the Baltic Sea.

The Norwegian Armed Forces' F-16 interceptor response unit was the first to detect the leaks.

Previous disputes between Russia and Germany over the Nord Stream project included Germany's stalling of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline's activation last February during Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In July, Gazprom, the state-owned main stakeholder in Nord Stream, reportedly reduced Nord Stream 1 throughput to 20% of potential capacity.

Environmental dangers

While oil spills can quickly damage and eventually kill animals, officials believed gas pipeline leaks pose only a minor hazard to nearby plant and animal life.

The German environment ministry stated that the leaks would not pose a significant threat to marine life, but Greenpeace expressed concern on Tuesday that fish could become entangled in gas plumes, interfering with their breathing.

According to Denmark's Energy Agency, it is too early to say who will investigate the Nord Stream 2 leak, and no one has visited the pipeline yet.

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