The Fifth Wave: South Africa could be Entering Another Wave of Covid as Infections Rise Up

Just only exited a fourth Covid wave around January, it seems like the African continent might enter into another wave of Covid "earlier than expected".

South Africa health officials report in The Guardian a potential fifth wave of Covid infection as the country sustained  in infections over the past 14 days, which appears to have been driven by Omicron sub-variants. The country, which has recorded the most coronavirus cases and deaths on the latest wave - where total cases have exceeded 10.2 million - may be on brink of fifth Covid wave starting in May or June, early in the southern hemisphere winter.

According to health minister, Joe Phaahla, there was so far no dramatic change in intensive care unit admissions or deaths despite increased hospitalizations and there had not been new identified variant other than Omicron.

Africa's fourth pandemic wave which surged for six weeks "has been steep and brief but no less destabilizing", according to World Health Organization (WHO), but infectious disease specialist Richard Lessells said in a briefing that the waning immunity from previous waves could be contributing to the "earlier-than-expected" Covid-19 resurgence.

Rising Share Attributed to Omicron Sub-lineages

BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron sub-variants are reported to be causing the potential early round of wave which had a growth advantage over other Omicron sub-variants such as BA.2, according to Lessells. However, there was no sign that BA.4 and BA.5 were causing significantly more severe disease so far, said Waasila Jassat from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases.

Covid cases in Africa this year had been dropping since February, but infection numbers began increasing last week and have risen quickly since. The country is now recording several thousand cases a day, where  of positive tests jumped from four percent in mid-April to 19 percent on Thursday, as per the figures.

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Uptick in Covid Cases

Recorded cases in South Africa accounts for a quarter of the continent's overall number of reported infections. Since the pandemic's onset, South Africa has reported more than 3.7 million COVID-19 cases in total and recorded in excess of 100,000 deaths, consistent with having the most infections and deaths.

With doubling cases, the country is seeing an uptick in Covid-19 infections "for the first time after a decline of more than two months for cases and one month for deaths," said Benido Impouma, director for communicable and non-communicable diseases at the WHO's Africa office. "This uptick is largely associated with the increasing number of cases reported from South Africa as the country enters its winter season when respiratory illnesses become more prevalent," Impouma added.

To this date, a third of adults nationwide have been fully vaccinated according to data. In fact, South Africa had enough vaccine doses as of the moment and does not plan to procure more, according to Senior health official Nicholas Crisp. He added that the government does not intend to buy Pfizer's Covid-19 treatment pill, Paxlovid, for public sector patients due to it being very pricy.

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