A new study shows sea-level rise will devastate cities in California. State planners and scientists realize that the rising sea will threaten the California shoreline and areas previously thought to be less vulnerable to floods.

According to Climate Impacts & Coastal Processes Team research director from USGS Patrick Barnard, the rising groundwater cannot be stopped by berms, walls, and protections.

The Research

Kristina Hill of the University of California in Berkeley conducted research that focused on the vulnerability of areas in the San Francisco Bay. According to Hill, even a mere one-foot water level rise will increasingly flood Marin City.

The research team published their study recently in Nature Climate Change. The study found that twice the area of land in the Bay Area can flood.

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The Worsening Problem

Barnard is a co-author of the published study, who said that it is the slow upward rise of water that gets up to roadbeds, foundations, and garages. More saltwater has also entered deeper aquifers and rivers, which is a burden for areas relying on groundwater. Water supplies in Salinas Valley and Oxnard Plain are becoming salty.

According to the California Legislative Analyst Office, a minimum of eight billion dollars may be under the sea by the year 2050, and an additional 10 billion dollars affected by high tides. In the next ten years, the sea level may rise over six inches, exacerbated by heavy storms and El Nino.

Study Analysis

The team looked at 10,000 wells in the Bay Area and pioneered the mapping of the region's shallow groundwater. Hill also focused on Marin City, whose topography, she says, is bowl-shaped, making it simple to guess where to find flooding groundwater. Most of the city was once wetlands, where water will naturally go. 

University of Arkansas geosciences assistant professor, hydrologist, and lead study author Kevin Befus sorted the data of over 1,200 miles of California shoreline. He created a model that shows critical gaps in the data and vulnerable areas. He found that roughly 30% of the coast had problems with the groundwater as Hill's study areas.

The researchers also note that airports sitting on low-elevation flat areas near water can also be affected, along with the L.A. and Ventura Navy and port infrastructures.

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Rain Exacerbates the Problem

Befus also said that storm would rapidly overwhelm drainage systems, which levees, seawalls, or pumping groundwater cannot solve. The latter can even sink the land. USGS and Befus are trying to increase the complexity of the model by possibly adding storms and trying to analyze the risk level of infrastructure.

Action Being Taken

The San Francisco BCDC or Bay Conservation & Development Commission is incorporating groundwater into maps of sea-level rise. Hayward and Alameda's cities also started planning. As for Marin City, its officials will assess vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, environmental groups help restore the wetlands, which may mitigate flooding in the future.

California Governor Gavin Newsom mobilized agencies to prepare the state for a minimum of 3.5 feet rise by the year 2050.

Governor Deputy Secretary Mark Gold worked with the agencies to determine the rail lines, roads, and other infrastructure at the highest risk. Unfortunately, it is not so easy to do this for underground infrastructures such as pump stations and sewage pipes. According to Gold, both the seen and unseen can be equally devastating with the California sea level rise.

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