A new study suggests that the impact that rising global temperatures may have on the agriculture industry and global inflation would most certainly cause food costs to rise even more.
Climate Condition Affects Food Prices
A report published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment found that changes in average monthly temperatures have the largest and most consistent link with productivity and inflation data.
Researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany looked at historical food prices in different categories of food goods across countries around the world to investigate how fluctuations in different climatic conditions have historically impacted food inflation as well as the implications of future climate change.
They evaluated monthly pricing for a variety of goods and services in 121 nations between 1996 and 2021, as well as the meteorological conditions that those countries experienced.
The researchers searched for relationships between food prices and characteristics, including average monthly temperature, temperature variability, and drought and extreme rainfall indicators. They discovered a robust relationship between average temperature and food prices around a month later.
Experts examined the 2022 excessive summer heat event in Europe and discovered that food inflation increased by 0.43-0.93% across the continent. By 2035, this will be exacerbated by 30-50%, according to current warming forecasts.
Warmer-than-average winter temperatures in locations north of 40 degrees latitude, which includes New York City, Madrid, and Beijing, have resulted in lower food prices. However, in the summer and throughout the rest of the world, above-average temperatures drove up food prices.
Furthermore, the impact on prices is long-term.
"Once the prices have increased on the basis of one of these shocks, they stay higher for at least the rest of the year," said Maximilian Kotz at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
Global South
Climate-driven inflation will affect both high- and low-income countries, but countries in the global south, particularly Africa and South America, will be disproportionately affected.
Because much of the global south suffers from some of the highest temperatures, the impacts of climate change on food supplies in those places will be significantly higher.
"They're closer to higher temperatures at which further temperatures increases start to be damaging, especially for most crops," Kotz said.
In the higher latitudes, rises in average temperatures cause upward inflationary pressures when they occur during the year's hottest months. The opposite occurs when the average monthly temperature rises during the region's colder months.
In the lower latitudes, rising average monthly temperatures cause inflationary pressures all year. Excess wet weather can also produce an increase in inflation, which can then remain over 12 months, according to the report.
However, the findings indicate that the effects are less substantial when dealing with excessive dry circumstances. According to the researchers, there was some influence, although it was mostly short-term.
According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index, food prices dropped in real terms between 1960 and 2000, but have since risen. Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine resulted in a significant surge, contributing to protests in several nations.
The index price has since fallen, but it remains higher than before the invasion.
Related Article: Inflation Drives Cost of Christmas Trees Expected to have 20% Increase Compared to Last Year's Prices
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