Tropical Storm Julia Strengthens Into Hurricane, Tracking Caribbean Sea to Nicaragua

Experts warned that Tropical Storm Julia, which developed near the Colombian coast on Friday, could rapidly intensify into a hurricane covering the Caribbean Sea before wreaking havoc on the coasts of Nicaragua this weekend.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded the disturbance AccuWeather has been tracking for more than a week and labeled a tropical rainstorm on Tuesday to Tropical Depression 13 two nights later. The NHC reported that the depression had intensified into the 10th tropical storm of this year's season at noon on Friday.

On Friday at 2:00 PM EDT, Julia had maximum sustained winds reaching 40 mph while moving toward the west at a speed of 24 km/h. Julia was roughly 240 km northeast of Barranquilla, and 815 km east of Isla de Providencia. Both places are located in Colombia.

Nicaragua Hurricane Watch, Warnings

Parts of Nicaragua and Colombia's offshore islands are under hurricane watches and warnings, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The storm's proximity to the South American coast has been the only thing preventing it from intensifying for the majority of this week. The system caused early-week flooding and torrential rain in Trinidad and Tobago's Windward Islands as it moved steadily westward throughout the week. In the middle of this week, torrential downpours swept across Venezuela's northern coast and the ABC Islands.

Mark Mancuso, a senior on-air meteorologist from AccuWeather, said that the system could intensify quickly into a hurricane as it advances westward and enters the area of open waters, the southwestern Caribbean, on Friday evening and Saturday.

Category 2 Hurricane

Maximum sustained winds for a Category 2 hurricane range from 154 to 177 km/h.

The likelihood of Sunday morning's landfall along Nicaragua's central coast is increasing, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. Before Julia arrives later on Saturday and into Saturday night, the seas will rise, the winds will pick up, and the rain will intensify.

The AccuWeather RealImpactTM Scale for Hurricanes has assigned Julia a rating of 2 due to its anticipated effects in Nicaragua this weekend and into the first half of next week.

Category 1 Hurricane

In northeastern Nicaragua, where a StormMaxTM of 175 km/h is most likely, recurring wind gusts between 100 and 130 km/h are expected factors of a Category 1 hurricane. Strong winds like this one are likely to cause a lot of downed trees, power outages, and property damage.

Forecast models at this time strongly recommend taking preventative actions to safeguard lives and property, and operators of commercial and recreational fishing vessels as well as cruise ships are advised to steer clear of the storm's path.

Near and immediately to the north of where the storm's eye moves ashore along Nicaragua's coast, a possibly dangerous storm surge of a few meters is possible.

Torrential Rainfall

Flooding in Central America is likely to pose the biggest risks to people's lives and property. Central and western Nicaragua is expected to receive 200-300 mm on average, along with portions of southern Honduras and possibly eastern parts of El Salvador, in which an AccuWeather Local StormMaxTM of 500 mm is anticipated. This much rain will cause major river flooding, and flash flooding in cities and small streams, and there is a chance of mudslides in the mountainous terrain.

Later this weekend into early next week, flooding, heavy rain, and isolated strong winds will move westward and then northward over Central America and then into southern Mexico.

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Possibilities for Julia

If Julia intensifies into a hurricane, the effects of the wind, rainfall, and other factors will be much more extreme and widespread in Central America.

Once inland, AccuWeather meteorologists are researching several potential outcomes. In the oceans around southern Mexico and Central America, Julia might recur as a tropical rainstorm.

The possibility exists that Julia's original center survives and moves on to the eastern Pacific or even the southwest Gulf of Mexico before reorganizing or strengthening early next week. The storm would still go by its original name in this scenario. However, a new system with a different name might develop if the old Julia circulation center completely disappears.

Dan Pydynowski, a senior meteorologist from AccuWeather, said that the storm could either redevelop in the southwest Gulf of Mexico or the eastern Pacific, or it could simply weaken early next week.

The region extending out from the southern Gulf of Mexico into the central and western Caribbean Sea may continue to be a tropical trouble spot after early next week. Forecasters predict that a front will enter the area and stall. While this might cause undesirable wind shear, it might also contribute to more spin in the area, which might let a new tropical system develop. As a result, AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to keep a close eye on the area.

Another One

Another tropical system may develop over the west of the Azores, in the north-central Atlantic, around the middle of the month, according to some indications. The US wouldn't be in danger from this system. Although Julia does not currently pose a threat to the United States, there is a remote possibility that a newly revived Julia or a brand-new system could stray near the Gulf Coast or off the coast east of Florida in the middle of October, Newsbreak reports.

Related article: Brewing Tropical System Could Slam Central America and Expected to Become Hurricane