Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave Could Develop Into Hurricane Julia

A tropical wave is currently developing in the eastern Atlantic region, and experts are watching it closely.

The system may develop into Hurricane Julia, the next storm of the season.

A couple of tropical disturbances in the Atlantic are being watched by the National Hurricane Center for potential development.

The tropical wave just east of the Windward Islands, Invest 91L, which is the closest to the United States, has displayed a little more organization this morning.

As it moved westward into the Caribbean Sea, some development is possible, and by the end of this week or this weekend, a depression could form.

Presently, Invest 91L has a 20% to 40% chance of developing over the ensuing two to five days.

It is important to keep an eye on this right now because it is too soon to predict where 91L will go or what intensity it will have in the long-term forecast.

Most models predicted that the disturbance will continue to move throughout the Caribbean into the following week.

A depression could form here within the next day or two before the following tropical wave moves into an area less conducive to further development.

Currently, Invest 92L has an 80% likelihood of developing over the following two to five days.

Up until mid-October, the region is still at the height of hurricane activity; the season ends formally on November 30.

There have been four hurricanes, two major hurricanes, and nine named storms so far this year, CBS News reported.

Read also: Coastal Storms Could Bring Flooding and Windswept rainfall to Southeastern Virginia and Long Island 

Tracking the Developing Hurricanes

Forecasting all tropical cyclone activity in the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins near North America is the responsibility of the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The NHC predicts the path, strength, structure, and size of tropical cyclones, as well as storm surges, rainfall, tornadoes, and the likelihood that a tropical cyclone will form within the next 48 hours.

The section on Hurricane Forecast Model Accuracy illustrates the general forecasting proficiency.

Once a tropical cyclone develops, NHC staff members follow a set of protocols to produce a set of forecast products, which are then shared with the outside world every six hours.

Although the NHC forecast process is the main focus here, other organizations in charge of tropical cyclone forecasts in other ocean basins adhere to a similar set of guidelines.

However, these organizations' guidelines are adapted to the requirements of their respective areas of responsibility and are influenced by the observational, modeling, as well as forecast distribution of information capabilities of those regions.

The available observations are the first step in the NHC hurricane forecasting process.

To track and predict hurricanes, a variety of land-based platforms are used, including satellites, reconnaissance aircraft, buoys, ships, radar, and more.

While a tropical cyclone is over open water, satellites are primarily used for remote measurements of the storm's strength and path.

Forecasters estimate a storm's characteristics using satellite data, such as the location of its center, its recent motion, and its intensity.

Hurricanes can be continuously monitored by Atlantic and Pacific Geostationary (GOES) satellites from their formation to dissipation.

The US Air Force and NOAA dropsondes, hurricane aircraft, and land stations directly monitor Atlantic hurricanes once they become a threat to land.

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