How Ready Are We Against Extremely Powerful Volcanic Eruptions?

People would probably take action if there were a one in six probability that my house would collapse in my lifetime, said Gizmodo's Lauren Leffer. Humanity is "woefully unprepared" for a major volcanic eruption.

(Photo : Toby Elliott/Unsplash)

Extreme Volcanic Eruption

The devastation resulted from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano eruption in Tonga on January 15. The explosion physically destroyed an island, brought about widespread floods nearby, covered entire towns in thick ash, and knocked out communications for weeks. But in that eruption, humans were fortunate, claims a fresh editorial piece printed in Nature's academic journal.

According to University of Birmingham volcanologist Michael Cassidy and University of Cambridge scholar Lara Mani studying volcanic risk, the situation may have been considerably worse if the eruption had continued longer and released more gas and ash. They say that a similar catastrophe might have disastrous global repercussions the next time, and we must be better prepared.

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Devastating Disasters

(Photo : Photo by U.S. Geological Survey via Getty Images)

The eruption resulted in the deaths of four individuals, but many more may have perished if the volcano had been located in a more heavily inhabited region. With a few minor adjustments, the eruption may have caused widespread infrastructure damage or a possible disruption of the world's supply chains.

Worldwide climatic instability (which would have happened considerably more quickly due to human-induced climate change) might have easily been created by a greater catastrophe. This has occurred before: Crops failed worldwide due to the 1815 Mount Tambora eruption, which was the greatest eruption ever recorded in human history.

Although the size of this year's Tonga eruption has not yet been officially determined, Cassidy and Mani calculated that there is a one in six chance that an eruption 10 to 100 times greater will occur in the next century. A dice roll of one in six. The authors concluded that "the world is dreadfully unprepared for such a disaster." "The eruption in Tonga should serve as a wake-up call."

So how worried should we be? And how can we prepare for the major one? Leffer asked Cassidy when they chatted.

Growing Anxiety

He believes the anxiety originated from COVID. Everyone was shut down in this epidemic that we all suspected may be approaching but never truly anticipated. He thought that the likelihood of a pandemic occurring this century was around one in three, given the research that has since been done.

Many nations weren't well-prepared for it, you know. However, the biomedical community responded remarkably and created vaccinations and other therapies. He then wondered, "How would his subject of volcanology do with something of a similar size, some major cataclysmic event? And his immediate assumption was that he was probably not doing well.

Disaster Preparedness

A volcano will indicate that it could erupt, but the interval between the first signs of disturbance and eruptive activity may be a few days to a few weeks or months. The USGS Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) and its monitoring partners strive to identify the early signs of volcanic unrest to alert at-risk populations and provide officials enough time to activate emergency response plans and property- and life-saving mitigation measures.

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