Patricia Gregg, a geology professor, and her colleagues had just built up a new volcano forecasting modeling software on the Blue Waters and iForge supercomputers in the fall of 2017.
Another crew was monitoring activity at the Sierra Negra volcano in the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador, at the same time.
Dennis Geist of Colgate University, one of the scientists on the Ecuador project, contacted Gregg, and the result was a five-month-ahead projection of the June 2018 Sierra Negra eruption.
Supercomputer for forecasting volcanic eruptions
(Photo : GARRY LOTULUNG/AFP via Getty Images)
The new modeling technique, which was first created on an iMac computer, has previously gained distinction for accurately reproducing the 2008 eruption of Alaska's Okmok volcano
Gregg's team from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and the National Center for Supercomputing Applications sought to test the model's latest high-performance computing update, and Geist's Sierra Negra observations suggested an approaching eruption.
Sierra Negra is a well-behaved volcano, according to Gregg, the lead author of a recent research on the successful program.
This indicates that before previous eruptions, the volcano displayed all of the telltale indicators of an eruption, such as a groundswell, gas release, and heightened tectonic events.
According to the experts, many volcanoes do not follow these well-established patterns. Forecasting eruptions is one of the great problems in volcanology, and Gregg and her team's work focuses on developing quantitative models to aid in these more difficult circumstances.
Gregg and her colleagues ran the Sierra Negra data through the new supercomputing-powered model over the 2017-18 winter break.
They finished the run in January 2018, and while it was meant to be a test, it ended up offering a framework for comprehending Sierra Negra's eruption cycles and estimating the potential and timing of future eruptions-but no one understood it at the time.
Researchers use a range of methodologies to monitor volcanoes, including seismographic detection of earthquakes and involuntary movements that almost always precede eruptions, precise measurements of ground deformation that frequently occurs with magma rise, changes in volcanic gas emissions, and changes in gravity and magnetic fields.
How are volcanic eruptions being forecasted?
Although these tools are not diagnostic on their own, when combined with well-monitored volcanoes, they have resulted in effective forecasts.
A good forecast at the Pinatubo volcano (Philippines) in 1991 saved thousands of lives.
According to the USGS Volcano Hazards Program, the key to an accurate short-term eruption forecast is the ability to discern when such monitoring data reveal persistent shifts from typical background levels of activity.
Monitoring-based projections are growing more trustworthy, yet they are still flawed. If scientists are lucky, precursors to an eruption will follow the same path as past eruptions.
However, patterns frequently shift, resulting in a whole new behavior.
The best projections will be based on a combination of geologic history, real-time monitoring, and a thorough understanding of the unique volcano's internal plumbing mechanisms.
Although with the best monitoring and analysis, accurate eruption predictions are seldom possible more than a few days in advance.
Volcano observatories issue forecasts with extreme caution since they can have devastating effects on the affected communities, forcing people to abandon their homes, crops, and animals in certain situations.
Inaccurate predictions can waste valuable resources and/or weaken citizens' faith in future projections.
On the other hand, Volcano observatory professionals can make reliable forecasts since they know to interpret their monitoring, which detects eruption precursors.
Most nations with volcanoes have tasked a government- or university-run observatory with giving public eruption forecasts.
Related article: Antarctica: Dormant Underwater Volcano Awakens, Causes 85,000 Earthquake Swarms
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