The Truth Behind the Paris Agreement Climate Pledges

• Only 28 European Union nations & 7 others will reduce emissions by at least 40 percent by 2030

• China & India, top emitters, will reduce emissions intensity, but their emissions will increase

• U.S., second top emitter, has reversed key national policies to combat climate change
• Almost 70 percent of the pledges rely on funding from wealthy nations for their implementation

Almost three-quarters of the 184 climate pledges made under the Paris Agreement aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions are inadequate to slow climate change, and some of the world's largest emitters will continue to increase emissions, according to a panel of world-class climate scientists. It is these increasing greenhouse emissions that are driving climate change.

The Truth Behind the Climate Pledges, a new report published by the Universal Ecological Fund, examines in great detail the 184 voluntary pledges under the Paris Agreement, the first collective global effort to address climate change.

"The comprehensive examination found that with few exceptions, the pledges of rich, middle income and poor nations are insufficient to address climate change," says Sir Robert Watson, former chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and co-author of the report. "Simply, the pledges are far too little, too late."

Out of 184 pledges, almost 75 percent were judged as insufficient to stop climate change from continuing to accelerate in the next decade, according to the report and its coauthors.

Of the 184 pledges, only 36 were deemed sufficient based on commitments to reduce emissions by at least 40 percent by 2030; 12 pledges were considered partially sufficient for their commitments to reduce emissions between 40-20 percent by 2030; 136 pledges were partially or totally insufficient. See annex for map and tables with the details of the ranking of the 184 pledges.

"Based on our meticulous analysis of the climate pledges, it is naive to expect current government efforts to substantially slow climate change," says Dr. James McCarthy, Professor of Oceanography at Harvard University and a coauthor of the report. "Failing to reduce emissions drastically and rapidly will result in an environmental and economic disaster from human-induced climate change."

Slightly more than half of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions, the main driver of climate change, comes from four nations -- China with 26.8 percent of global GHG emissions, the United States (13.1 percent), India (7 percent) and Russia (4.6 percent).

China and India have both submitted pledges to reduce their emissions intensity relative to GDP by 2030, which are likely to be met, but their emissions will continue to increase in the next decade due to economic growth. The report ranks both of their pledges as insufficient as they will not contribute to reducing global emissions by 50 percent by 2030.

The United States (U.S.) has given notice of its intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. The Trump Administration has cut major federal regulations meant to curb emissions. Thus, the U.S. pledge submitted by the Obama Administration to reduce emissions by 26-28 percent by 2025 is in "limbo." Because of the reversal in federal policy, the report ranks the U.S. pledge as insufficient.

Russia has not even submitted a climate pledge.

Only the European Union (with its 28 Member States), one of the five top GHGs emitters at 9 percent of global GHGs, has taken an aggressive stand against climate change. The EU is expected to cut GHGs emissions by 58 percent below 1990 level by 2030. This exceeds the EU's commitment of "at least 40 percent of GHG emissions below 1990 level." The report ranks the EU pledge as sufficient.

The remaining 152 pledges are from nations responsible for 32.5 percent of global GHG emissions. Of that total, 127 countries or almost 70 percent have submitted conditional plans to reduce GHG emissions. The pledges of these nations rely on technical assistance and funding from wealthy nations, estimated at $100 billion annually, for their implementation. Provision of this assistance has been more difficult than was anticipated in 2015. Both the United States and Australia have stopped making contributions.

All countries need to reduce emissions to meet the Paris Agreement targets, although not all countries have equal responsibility because of the principle of differentiated responsibility, historical emissions, current per person emissions and the need to develop. Some countries will require international assistance.

Another indicator that reflects the lack of action to fight climate change: 97 percent of the 184 climate pledges are the same as those initially submitted in 2015-2016 after the Paris Agreement was adopted. Only six countries have reviewed their pledges: 4 countries increased their plan to cut emissions; 2 nations weakened their pledges.

"Even if all climate pledges which are voluntary are fully implemented, they will cover less than half of what is needed to limit the acceleration of climate change in the next decade," says Dr. Watson.

Global GHG emissions are projected to be 54 GtCO2-eq (gigatons of all GHGs combined, expressed in CO2 equivalent) by 2030, if all pledges are fully implemented. To stay below 1.5ºC above pre-industrial times, a Paris Agreement goal, global GHG emissions in 2030 should be only about 27 GtCO2-eq. This means that action to address climate change must double or triple within the next decade to reduce emissions by 50 percent by 2030.

"The current pledges will not solve the climate change challenge, because global GHG emissions need to be halved by next decade and net-zero by midcentury," says Dr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic, former Director of Global Energy Assessment, former Convening Lead Author of the IPCC Working Group III and coauthor of the report. "At best, they only postpone the problem by a few years."

"There is no easy way to compare the pledges because they have no common denominator. That is why we ranked the pledges based on their emission reduction commitments," says Liliana Hisas, UEF's Executive Director and lead researcher of the report. "We showed that many climate pledges would actually continue to increase emissions."

The clock is ticking. The next decade is a test.

"Climate change is already adversely affecting human health, livelihoods, food, water, biodiversity, oceans and economic growth," says Dr. Pablo Canziani, a Senior Scientist at the National Scientific and Technical Research Council, Professor at Argentina's National Technological University and coauthor of the report.

If nations fail to halve GHGs emissions by the next decade, the number of hurricanes, severe storms, wildfires and droughts are likely double in number, intensity and economic losses. The cost: $2 billion a day by 2030, a price tag that the world cannot afford.

70 percent of GHGs are CO2 emissions from fossil fuels

About 70 percent of global GHGs emissions are from carbon dioxide (CO2), due to fossil fuels. CO2 emissions can be rapidly and drastically reduced in a cost-effective way.

Switching electricity generation from coal to renewables can rapidly reduce CO2 emissions.This means phasing out and closing2,400 coal-fired power stations globally within the next decade. This is viable and cost-effective. A barrier: 250-coal powered units are now under construction and represent huge potential stranded investment.

"Leaders need to adopt new policies to close coal-fired power plants and promote renewable and carbon-free power sources such as wind, solar and hydropower," says Dr. McCarthy. "These are tasks which individuals can't do, but can reasonably expect their leaders to."

Secondly, it is imperative that we increase energy efficiency, which can reduce CO2 emissions by 40 percent by 2040, according to the International Energy Agency. Individuals can be major contributors to those emission reductions.Globally, households willsave more than $500 billion dollars in energy bills annually.

"From cars and household electricity use to industrial processes, the potential of efficiency improvement in energy use is so large that current energy use levels would be sufficient to provide all energy services by 2030," says Dr. Nakicenovic. "This is a critical element, since world population is expected to be 8.5 billion within a decade or 1.2 billion additional people."

"Activities each of us do every day contribute to climate change. By using energy more efficiently, we can all help solve it," says Liliana Hisas. "This is something we can all do through smarter choices. Policies can accelerate the implementation of climate solutions."