A viral rumour predicting a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami in Japan in July 2025 is unsettling travellers across East Asia and prompting cancellations. The speculation, which originated from a Japanese manga, has spread rapidly online, fuelling anxiety despite reassurances from scientists.
Seismologists and government officials have repeatedly dismissed the claims, stressing that earthquakes cannot be forecast with such precision. Even so, the rumour is already denting bookings from South Korea and Hong Kong, raising concern within Japan's tourism sector.
Manga Sparked Concern on Social Media
The story can be traced to The Future I Saw, a manga by Ryo Tatsuki first published in 1999 and republished in 2021. The later edition contains imagery and references to a 'real catastrophe' in July 2025. The vague warning gained traction on social media platforms, sparking speculation in Hong Kong, Taiwan, mainland China and South Korea.
Tourism data shows early signs of impact. In Hong Kong, flight bookings to Japan dropped by 11 per cent in May compared with the previous year, according to Reuters. Airlines have also cancelled or scaled back routes to destinations such as Kagoshima and Kumamoto after demand weakened.
Experts Dismiss Rumour as Misinformation
The Japan Meteorological Agency has worked to counter the speculation. Its director, Ryoichi Nomura, underlined that earthquake science does not allow for predictions of time or place, describing the rumour as misinformation with no scientific basis, according to The Washington Post.
Yoshihiro Murai, governor of Miyagi prefecture, also condemned the panic, warning that unfounded claims risk damaging the country's tourism recovery. Hong Kong Airlines confirmed that some flights were deferred after weak bookings, highlighting the reach of the anxiety.
Seismologists do point to an estimated 80 per cent chance of a major earthquake occurring somewhere in Japan within the next 30 years. However, they stress this is a long-term risk assessment, not an immediate or specific threat.
Tourism on Edge in Key Markets
While Hong Kong has so far seen the largest number of cancellations, South Korean tour operators are also reporting a rise in concerned clients, according to Travel and Tour World. Some travellers have begun to hesitate over trips planned for the peak summer season, although precise figures have not yet been released. Officials in both countries are monitoring the situation closely given the importance of cross-border tourism.
Japanese authorities have sought to reassure visitors, highlighting the country's strict building codes, rapid earthquake alert systems and longstanding record of managing natural risks. Tourism boards are urging would-be travellers to rely on official information rather than social media speculation.
Impact on Japan's Tourism
The timing of the cancellations is significant for Japan, which has been steadily rebuilding its tourism sector since the Covid-19 pandemic. South Korea and Hong Kong are among its most important inbound markets, and prolonged hesitation could slow recovery.
Even with the disruption, Japan's overall tourism numbers remain strong. More than 28.5 million travellers entered the country in the first half of 2025, according to industry analysis by Tourist Japan, putting it on track to surpass a record 40 million international visitors by year end. China led arrivals in June with nearly 798,000 visitors, a 23.6 per cent increase year on year, while South Korea accounted for 729,800, up 21.6 per cent. Record highs were also reported from the United States, Canada and Singapore.
Countering the Rumour
Experts across government and academia continue to stress that the July 2025 prediction has no scientific credibility. Despite this, the consequences of the rumour are already visible, with airlines adjusting schedules and travellers postponing plans.
For Japan's tourism industry to sustain its recovery, countering misinformation with clear and consistent communication will be vital in the months ahead.
Originally published on IBTimes UK
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