Hawaii to be Hit by More Tropical Cyclones in the Future: Study

Hawaii has been hit by two hurricanes in over three decades' time. However, global change in temperature may lead to the state experiencing frequent hurricanes in the future, according to a new study.

The study was conducted by researchers from International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, and it has been found that Hawaii could see a two- to threefold increase in cyclones by the end of this century (around 2075-2099).

Previous research from IPRC had shown that Hawaii will have less rainfall in the future. The state's annual rainfall levels have been declining steadily since 1978.

For the study, the research team analyzed the recent history of tropical cyclones in the North Pacific and examined possible outcomes in the future using a computer model. The researchers accounted for changes in temperatures, gas emissions, etc.

"Computer models run with global warming scenarios generally project a decrease in tropical cyclones worldwide. This, though, may not be what will happen with local communities," Hiroyuki Murakami, Meteorology Department, University of Hawaii at Manoa and lead author of the study, said in a news release.

Along with sea-surface temperatures, flow of wind and change in moisture content are thought to be factors that influence the increase of tropical cyclones.

Currently, many of the tropical cyclones that are born near eastern Pacific fizzle out before reaching Hawaii due to the long 3,000-mile journey.

However, changes in jet streams could enable cyclones from Baja California to hit Hawaii. Also, the computer models show that the heating up of equatorial central Pacific could lead to cyclones being born in the ocean to the south or southeast of Hawaii. "Our finding that more tropical cyclones will approach Hawaii as Earth continues to warm is fairly robust because we ran our experiments with different model versions and under varying conditions. The yearly number we project, however, still remains very low," said Bin Wang, from the Meteorology Department, University of Hawaii at Manoa and co-author of the study.

The study is published in the journal Nature Climate Change.