Next Yellowstone Volcanic Eruption is Overdue, Possibly Magnitude 8 or Higher

Some claim that the next volcanic eruption in Yellowstone is overdue and may occur with an intensity of Magnitude 8 or higher, however, accurate volcanic eruption predictions are still out of reach.

Despite being dormant at the moment, the enormous supervolcano that supports Yellowstone National Park is thought to be active.

Scientists believe that Yellowstone has the potential to erupt in the future because of the presence of hot, fluid, or semi-fluid material (magma) beneath the earth as evidenced by the presence of hydrothermal features and frequent seismic activity in the region. The most recent Yellowstone volcanic eruption was a lava flow that happened about 70,000 years ago.

Overdue and Monitoring a Supervolcano

However, despite assertions from some quarters that an eruption is overdue, scientists have not found any indicators that one is about to happen.

A large volcano with at least one eruption of magnitude 8 or higher-the highest value on the Volcanic Explosivity Index-is referred to as a supervolcano.

In the past two million years or so, the Yellowstone supervolcano, which is situated in northwest Wyoming, has experienced three enormous explosions that were among the largest eruptions recorded in human history. The present-day caldera was formed by eruptions that took place about 2.1 million years ago, then again 1.3 million years ago, as well as about 631,000 years ago. Calderas are enormous craters that are formed when volcanoes erupt and collapse.

Numerous smaller eruptions took place between the massive explosion 631,000 years ago and the lava flows 70,000 years later.

Given Yellowstone's past and the presence of magma, it is entirely feasible that another eruption will take place in the future; however, neither scientists nor the general public is certain of when or how this will happen. On top of the fact, there is no practical way to see what is happening beneath a volcano, these eruptions do not occur at regular intervals, making them difficult to predict.

Improvements in Predicting Volcanic Eruptions

In the past 20 years or so, forecasting eruptions has significantly improved, and there are now several indicators scientists can watch for that may be giveaways of an impending eruption.

Using a variety of real-time monitoring technologies, scientists at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) are constantly scanning the area for such indications.

Strong earthquake swarms and swift ground deformation are two possible indicators, both of which are frequently observed in the days and weeks prior to an eruption.

Scientists anticipate that in the event of a large eruption, the time leading up to it would be marked by intense activity far exceeding basal levels in various locations throughout the Yellowstone supervolcano. Weeks, months, or even years in advance, there may be indications of a catastrophic eruption.

Many Small Earthquakes and Uplifts

The Yellowstone region regularly sees ground movement, numerous small earthquakes, and other types of geological activity as a result of the magma beneath the surface. However, as long as these processes do not deviate too much from normal ranges, they are not thought to be a precursor to an impending eruption.

YVO scientists track ground deformation and keep an eye on seismic activity using a network of seismographs.

This movement, in particular the uplift or elevation of the ground, may indicate that magma is moving toward the surface, though it is not always a sign that an eruption is about to occur. Without ever erupting, many volcanoes, especially calderas like Yellowstone, exhibit signs of uplift and subduction over a long period of time.

Catastrophic Supereruptions

Giant supervolcano eruptions are difficult to predict because they vary so much in terms of duration of the eruption, their rapidity of onset, and triggering mechanisms, among other factors, according to a study published in the journal Nature Reviews Earth and Environment last year.

The greatest explosive volcanic eruptions on Earth, these catastrophic "supereruptions" take place about once every 100,000 years on average.

Individual supereruptions, meanwhile, can happen for days to weeks or even decades. Additionally, there is a wide range of triggering mechanisms. Although past massive eruptions have helped to define a supervolcano, they are not always a reliable predictor of how a particular volcano will act in the future, according to the researchers. The most likely kind of volcanic eruption would be lava flows. The worst-case scenario, however, would be a giant supereruption, even though there is very little chance that such an occurrence will take place in any given century.

Read also: Scientists Urge Humanity to Prepare for Colossal Dangers of Next Super Eruption  

More Magma Underneath

This year, a study that was published in the journal Science revealed that there was a lot more magma under the supervolcano than was previously believed. Scientists used seismic data analysis to locate and quantify the liquid component of magma, beneath the caldera.

In the shallow depths of the crust, where previous eruptions were thought to have originated, the authors of the Science article discovered that there was more melt than had previously been recognized. Additionally, they discovered that the caldera's magma reservoir was roughly twice as big as previously believed.

However, according to the scientists, the amount of melt is considerably less than what would be needed for an eruption to take place soon. If the situation starts to significantly change, the researchers wrote in their paper, continued monitoring of the subsurface should give them a clear picture. To aid in the prediction of such events, more study is required to better understand the mechanisms that lead to the eruption of these supervolcanoes, Newsweek reports.

Related article: Dormant Volcano in Alaska Shows Signs of Activity for the First Time in 800 Years, Could an Eruption be Underway?