Thursday is shaping up to be a busy weather day, with tropical activity in the Atlantic, a significant winter storm in the northern Plains, and the possibility of severe weather in the Midwest.
Triple threat Thursday expected to hit Florida
(Photo : NOAA/Unsplash)
Nicole formed as a subtropical storm early Monday, just northeast of the Bahamas, and became a tropical storm as it moved toward Florida on Tuesday morning.
The 14th named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is Nicole, as per Fox News.
Regardless of Nicole's precise path, widespread effects will be felt along much of the southeastern United States coast.
Prolonged coastal flooding, high winds, heavy rainfall, and dangerous surf and rip currents are all possible.
If Tropical Storm Nicole strengthens into a hurricane, damaging hurricane-force winds (74-plus mph) will become a significant threat, particularly when it makes landfall along Florida's east coast.
Nicole will pose a severe weather risk along the East Coast, in addition to high winds.
It is gaining strength and tracking westward, centered a few hundrd miles east of the Bahamas, and has a large wind field, which means that its effects will be felt far from the center of the storm.
Winds in Florida are already frequently gusting above 30 mph, especially near the Atlantic beaches and on occasion along parts of the Georgia coast.
It will continue to move westward, eventually reaching the Bahamas and Florida.
Nicole is expected to strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane near the northwest Bahamas on Wednesday before making landfall along Florida's Atlantic coast late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
However, as we'll see below, the impacts will arrive much sooner, as per The Weather Channel.
Nicole will then curl north near or over Florida before being picked up by a cold front on Friday, which will turn the storm northeastward over the Southeast states.
Nicole's remnant energy and moisture will combine with the cold front to bring heavy rain up the East Coast into Saturday.
Severe weather expected in the Midwest
On Thursday, a strong weather system will bring the possibility of severe weather to parts of the Upper Midwest and central Plains.
Severe storms are expected to form ahead of a cold front, and early forecasts indicate that there will be enough moisture and wind shear - the change in wind speed and direction with height - for supercell thunderstorms to form.
Larger cities, including Des Moines, Iowa, Omaha, Nebraska, Kansas City, Missouri, and Wichita, Kansas, are at risk of severe weather at this time.
While one side of this powerful weather system is expected to experience severe weather, the other side is expected to experience a significant winter storm.
Blizzard conditions are expected in the Dakotas, with snow, sleet, and freezing rain spreading into northern Minnesota and eastern Montana.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, the snow totals from this winter storm could be significant on the northern side, with high winds bringing blizzard conditions that will make travel hazardous.
Forecast Impacts
Onshore winds will persist well ahead of Nicole's center, causing coastal flooding along parts of the Southeast coast from Florida to the Carolinas through Thursday, or in some areas, Friday.
This coastal flooding at high tide will worsen each day and reach a peak as Nicole's center approaches early Thursday morning.
Winds are already picking up on the Southeast coast ahead of Nicole.
By early Wednesday, tropical-storm-force winds will have arrived in the northwest Bahamas and eastern Florida. This could make planning difficult.
Hurricane-force winds are expected to hit the northwest Bahamas on Wednesday and eastern Florida by Wednesday night.
This magnitude of wind is capable of bringing down trees and knocking out power.
The heaviest rain will first fall in Florida on Wednesday, then spread north into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas on Thursday and Friday.
The heaviest rainfall totals are expected in northeast Florida, including some areas flooded by Hurricane Ian's rain.
Following Ian's rain about six weeks ago, parts of the St. Johns River remain above flood stage.
According to the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center, the St. Johns River's slow fall in recent weeks following Ian will transition to slowly rising levels for a brief period after Nicole's rainfall.
Nicole's moisture, combined with an impending cold front, will bring soaking rain to the Appalachians, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Friday and Saturday.
From parts of southern Florida into the Carolinas, Georgia, the mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast, one to foiy inches of rain is possible, with locally higher amounts.
This could cause flash flooding and some river flooding, especially in the Appalachian Mountains and adjacent foothills, as well as parts of the Northeast urban corridor.
Related article: Hurricane Nicole Sheds Light on How Storms Impact Deep Ocean
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