Most of Indian Ocean's Coral Reefs May be Destroyed in Next 50 Years

coralReefs from Seychelles to South Africa might become functionally extinct as a result of global warming and overfishing, according to a new study.

According to a new estimation, all coral reefs in the western Indian Ocean are at high risk of collapsing in the next 50 years due to global warming and overfishing.

Coral Reef Systems in Danger

Reef systems from Seychelles to the Delagoa region off the coasts of Mozambique and South Africa are on the verge of being functionally extinct by the 2070s, jeopardizing hundreds of thousands of people's livelihoods and food supply.

Coral reefs in ten nations in the western Indian Ocean were studied, which was published today in the journal Nature Sustainability. It employed the International Union for the Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) red list of ecosystems framework to assess the health of 11 sub-regions, similar to the method used to determine the risk of extinction of a plant or animal.

Reefs in island nations, in particular, were discovered to be in grave danger due to rising sea temperatures caused by global warming, which is driving bleaching events - when corals eject algae residing in their tissue, turning them entirely white - to become more regular. Reefs in Madagascar's eastern and southern regions and Comoros and Mascarene Islands have been designated as critically endangered.

Related Article: Marine Scientists Shows How the World Lost 14% of its Corals in Less than a Decade

Various Causes

Overfishing, particularly of top predators, has altered the ecology of reefs in north Seychelles and along the entire east African coast, making them vulnerable to collapse. This is causing a build-up of various algae that can smother coral.

While the global decrease of coral reefs has been documented for some time, region-specific assessments of specific places provided greater clarity about the causes and degree of the damage, according to David Obura, chair of the IUCN corals group who conducted the study.

"Climate change poses the greatest hazard in the next 50 years." However, while we can project 50 years ahead, whether we will fulfill the 1.5C [increase] target relies on what we do in the next ten years. So we need to be concerned about a 10-year horizon," he stated.

"When a reef collapses, it loses its ability to operate as a reef system. Some species may still be present, but they will no longer form a reef. The services we rely on, such as coastal protection from rising sea levels, tourism, and fisheries, are in jeopardy, particularly for low-income people and communities. East Africa's tourism industry is big, and it relies on healthy reefs."

Due to global warming, overfishing, pollution, and habitat degradation, the world's coral reef cover has had half since the 1950s. The global decrease of ecosystems, which serve as critical nurseries for juvenile fish, is projected to continue as the temperature warms.

Mishal Gudka, a senior scientist at Cordio East Africa and one of the study's co-authors, said their analysis revealed overfishing of top predators on all of the reefs studied.

"These findings underline the need for better local fisheries management to protect the health of reef systems and secure long-term fish populations, which provide livelihoods for a quarter-million people in the region," Gudka added.

Worsening Situation

Obura believes that, in addition to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, stronger enforcement of fisheries restrictions and increased community engagement in reef management might assist in ensuring their sustainability.

"This evaluation confirms the gravity of the interconnected climate and biodiversity challenges, which were addressed by Cop26 in Glasgow last month and Cop15 [biodiversity conference] in Kunming in a few months. "We must take immediate action to address both global and local threats to corals, including climate change and overfishing," he added.

Also Read: How are Coral Reefs Adapting to Survive the Changes in the Climate

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