Tropical Activity in Gulf of Mexico Indicates Atlantic Basin is Heating Up

AccuWeather meteorologists continue to monitor an area of unsettled weather around the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, signaling that the time to prepare for the 2021 hurricane season is now along the US Gulf Coast.

There are still many unknowns about the scale of the strengthening and the precise track of the region of unsettled weather in the Bay of Campeche. There's still over a week until any potential landfall in the United States, so a lot may change between now and then.

The lack of a well-defined low-level circulation is a key impediment to prediction certainty at this time. The tropical entity is currently unorganized due to a vast region of changeable winds across the Bay of Campeche.

Weather Projections

Conditions are projected to improve later this week in Mexico's southern and central Gulf as a window for more organization and strengthening opens up. As a result, AccuWeather's experienced meteorologists recommend folks along the Gulf Coast to prepare and plan now. At the same time, there is still time before any potentially damaging weather arrives later this week.

Since the beginning of the month, meteorologists have warned of possible development in the western Gulf of Mexico and the northern Caribbean by mid-June.

Related Article: 2 Fledgling Hurricanes in Atlantic are Forming as Hurricane Season Begins

Water Temperature

The Gulf of Mexico has water temperatures in the low to mid-80s, warm enough to host a tropical system. According to AccuWeather meteorologists, an ideal temperature for development is approximately 80 degrees Fahrenheit.

Wind Shear

Wind shear is a regular inhibitor to tropical development, and that will most certainly be the case this week in the Gulf of Mexico. In the higher layers of the atmosphere, a light-to-moderate southwesterly breeze will keep the region of unsettled weather from forming. Wind shear can also move concentrated regions of rain and thunderstorms farther from the circulation's center. Early-season tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico are prone to this.

However, a small window of decreased wind shear in the central Gulf of Mexico is possible later this week, potentially giving a small time frame favorable to intensification.

Severe Rain and Flooding 

Residents in coastal Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and even the Florida Panhandle should be on the lookout for a surge of tropical moisture, if not a tropical depression or tropical storm, this weekend, given the near-term uncertainty.

In recent weeks, severe rain and flooding have wreaked havoc on some of those areas. Since May 1, certain areas, like Victoria, Texas, and Lake Charles, Louisiana, have received around 2 feet of rain.

Regardless of the level of tropical development, when tropical moisture flows northward from the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, the risk of another wave of catastrophic rain will undoubtedly grow.

Seas and surf can increase, and a plume of soaking showers and thunderstorms might travel northward and maybe westward along the Gulf Coast, even if nothing more than a poorly structured, weak tropical feature forms.

This week's tropical activity in the eastern Pacific basin might be sparked by the gyre now forming above Mexico. This week, Invest 93E, a concentrated region of unstable weather off the coast of southern Mexico, has been assigned a low chance of developing

Also Read: Storm Anxiety: How to Handle Extreme Weather Phobias During Hurricane Season

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