NDC Synthesis Reports Showed How Far Countries Are From Meeting Paris Agreement's Climate Goals

The initial NDC Synthesis Study released by the UN Climate Change emphasizes that nations must double and intensify efforts and apply better, more aggressive national climate action plans in 2021 if they are to meet the Paris Agreement target of reducing the rise in global temperatures by 2 ° C and, hopefully, by the end of the century, 1.5 ° C.

(Photo : (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images))
BERLIN, GERMANY - JANUARY 21: Exhaust emerges from the smokestack of a natural-gas fired power plant near a residential area in the city center on January 21, 2020 in Berlin, Germany. Germany is seeking to reduce its CO2 emissions in accordance with the Paris climate agreement.

2021 Goals

To face the global warming emergency, 2021 is the make-or-break year for the initiative. The science is clear; we need to cut global emissions by 45% by 2030 from 2010 to reduce the global temperature increase to 1.5C. The preliminary UNFCCC report is a red flag for the world. It shows that policymakers are nowhere near the commitment expected to reduce climate change to 1.5 degrees to meet the Paris Agreement's objectives. In their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), the big emitters need to step up even more ambitious emission reduction goals for 2030 far before the November UN Climate Conference in Glasgow," said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

Time to Step Up

"It's time now. Governments, businesses, investors, cities, regions, and civil society are rising through a global alliance dedicated to net-zero emissions by 2050. COVID is a virus that infects humans. The chance to build back greener and safer is provided by recovery plans. Decision-makers must walk the talk and step up. Long-term promises must be balanced by urgent steps to kick-start the decade of change that people and the world so desperately require, "he said.

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Commitment

(Photo : (Photo by Stefan Rousseau - WPA Pool/Getty Images))
LONDON, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 23: Prime Minister Boris Johnson chairs a session of the UN Security Council on climate and security at the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office on February 23, 2021 in London, England. The United Kingdom holds the security council's rotating presidency and is the host nation of this year's COP26 UN climate summit in Glasgow.

Parties to the Paris Agreement demanded the study to determine the success of national climate action plans, or NDCs, ahead of COP26 in Glasgow this November. It reveals that 75 Parties have communicated a new or revised NDC, reflecting nearly 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions until December 31, 2020.

"The report shows that current levels of climate ambition are far from placing us on a path to achieve our Paris Agreement goals," Patricia Espinosa, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary, said. "While we understand the recent political change in momentum toward greater climate action around the world, decisions to intensify and expand climate action must be made now in every region. This underlines that COP 26 must be the moment when a green, safe, balanced, and stable planet is on its way."

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Improvement

Although most countries listed raised their individual levels of commitment to reduce emissions, their cumulative effect puts them on target to reach a less than 1% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 2010 levels, according to the study. By comparison, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has suggested that carbon mitigation ranges could be about 45 percent smaller to meet the 1.5 ° C temperature target.

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Unforeseen Factors

(Photo : COVID-19 Industry Impacts May Help and Hurt the Environment)

Since COVID-19 raised major obstacles for many countries to complete their submissions by 2020, Espinosa explained that the Synthesis Study is a "snapshot, not a complete picture" of the NDCs. She announced that a second study will be published before COP26. She encouraged all countries - especially major emitters who have yet to do so - to send their data as soon as possible to be included in the updated report.

NDC Synthesis Report

The secretariat was requested by COP 21 (Paris, 2015) and CMA 2 (Madrid, 2019) to prepare a synthesis analysis of the NDCs sent by Parties before COP 26. Given the postponement of COP 26 to November 2021 and the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the planning process for the NDC, the Secretariat agreed to release two editions of the NDC synthesis report: the original version before 28 February 2021 and the final version before COP 262. (date to be determined yet).

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