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UN World Population Report Predicts 8 Billion People by 2025, 11 billion by 2100

Jun 14, 2013 04:26 PM EDT
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Earth's population could reach nearly 11 billion by 2100, according to new data from the United Nations' World Population Prospects report, which posits the world population will rise by about 800 million - 8 percent - more people than previous estimates.

By 2025, the world population will reach 8.1 billion people and will climb to 9.6 billion by 2050, if current fertility, mortality and migration trends hold.

More than half of the growth between now and 2050 will come from Africa, where fertility rates are reportedly higher than projected.

Adrian Raftery, a statistician and sociologist at the University of Washington who helped develop the models to analyze the UN data, said the "fertility decline in Africa has slowed down or stalled to a larger extent than we previously predicted, and as a result the African population will go up."

Nigeria's population is predicted to be 440.3 million, which puts it on pace surpass that of the United States by 2050.

"By the end of the century, Nigeria could start to rival China as the second most populous country in the world," the report said, according to the Associated Press, forecasting Nigeria's population at 913.8 million in 2100.

Indonesia, Pakistan and the Philippines are also set for large population increases.  

India, now the world's second most populous country, is predicted to compete China by 2028, the Guardian reported, when both nations will have approximately 1.45 billion people each.

In developing countries the population is expected to rise from 5.9 billion in 2013 to 8.2 billion in 2050 and to 9.6 billion in 2100. The planet's more-developed regions are not predicted to see much change, only rising slightly from this year's 1.25 billion to 1.28 billion by 2100. The report said the population in the richest countries would actually decline if it were not for an increased migration of people from poorer areas, according to the AFP, which also obtained the report.

Raftery said there is no end in sight for the increasing world population, but noted that world population issues often take a backseat next to climate issues and poverty, both of which he says have ties to world population.

"These new findings show that we need to renew policies, such as increasing access to family planning and expanding education for girls, to address rapid population growth in Africa," he said in a statement

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