Scientists Warn That 2024 May Surpass Last Year’s Hottest Record

(Photo : Getty Images/GAIZKA IROZ)

Scientists from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that this year has a one-in-three probability of being even hotter than 2023, which was already the world's hottest on record.

El Niño Phenomenon

In its annual global climate report, the agency validated EU scientists' estimates that 2023 was the warmest year since records began in 1850, with temperatures 1.35 degrees Celsius (2.43 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre industrial levels.

The amount of heat trapped in the upper layers of the ocean hit a record high last year.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also verified that 2023 was a record year and that the world has warmed 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.16 degrees Fahrenheit) beyond the preindustrial baseline, based on the ten-year global average temperature from 2014 to 2023.

The exceptional warmth has been caused by the use of fossil fuels and deforestation, and it follows a streak of hotter-than-average years in recent decades.

According to NOAA, each decade over the last 40 years has been warmer than the previous one, with the most recent ten years including the hottest ten years ever recorded.

El Niño, a recurrent climatic occurrence that heats up areas of the Pacific Ocean and raises global temperatures, contributed to last year's record heat.

It is projected to last until at least April, raising the possibility that 2024 will be another record year.

According to NOAA, 2024 has a one-in-three chance of being warmer than 2023 and a 99% chance of being among the five warmest years on record.

"It's highly likely (El Niño) will persist until April, possibly May, and then beyond that we're not sure - it becomes less certain," said Christopher Hewitt, WMO head of international climate services.

Authorities are on high alert for heatwaves, dryness, and wildfires as summer approaches in the Southern Hemisphere.

The Bureau of Meteorology in Australia issued high heat warnings for Western Australia this week.

"We're really concerned about the potential for dry spells in January and February, with a high likelihood of below-average rainfall," said Lark Walters, a decision support adviser for the Famine Early Warning System Network.

Aggressive Action

The demolition of the previous annual temperature record has heightened calls for more aggressive action to address the climate catastrophe.

Governments gathered in Dubai for United Nations climate talks in December and agreed to "transition away" from fossil fuels, but there is little evidence that this is occurring on the scale required, with last year setting a new record for global warming emissions and major, climate-breaking oil and gas drilling projects planned around the world.

Climate-related disasters took a heavy toll in 2023, from deadly wildfires in Hawaii to devastating flooding in Libya, according to NOAA.

In 2023, the United States alone saw a record number of extreme weather disasters, resulting in at least $1 billion in losses.

"Twenty twenty-three was a mere preview of the catastrophic future that awaits if we don't act now. We must respond to record-breaking temperature rises with path-breaking action," said António Guterres, secretary general of the UN.

The 1.5C limit is anticipated to be reached within the next decade, with some scientists claiming that the process is already underway. Researchers are apprehensive after an extraordinary year.