The Impact of El Nino Could Have a “Double Whammy” Effect, Worsening Extreme Weather and Hastening Sea-level Rise in the Arctic

Previous research has found that rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are expected to amplify the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the planet's most significant year-to-year climate fluctuation and a major driver of extreme droughts and floods.

As the planet warms, extremely warm El Nino events and cool La Nia events are expected to become more common.

Stronger El Niño Events May Speed Up And Irreversible

(Photo : KHALED DESOUKI/AFP via Getty Images)

Little is known about the consequences of Enso changes in Antarctica.

A new study led by CSIRO researchers and published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change discovered that stronger El Nino events were likely to have divergent effects in the ocean surrounding the southern continent.

Stronger El Ninos may accelerate the heating of deeper ocean waters while slowing the rate of warming on the surface as westerly winds along the continental shelf become less intense, according to an analysis of 31 climate models.

Dr. Wenju Cai, the study's lead author, and chief research scientist at CSIRO stated that the former would result in the ice sheet and ice shelves melting faster.

The study did not investigate how much faster melting could occur.

The Antarctic ice sheet is estimated to contain approximately 30 million cubic kilometers of ice, which, if completely melted, would raise global sea level by 70 meters over centuries, as per The Guardian.

A separate recent study estimated that global temperatures 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels - a point that has already been reached - would be enough to gradually collapse the West Antarctic ice sheet, resulting in a four-meter rise in sea level.

Stronger El Ninos, according to Cai, could have a "double whammy" effect, worsening extreme weather - heat, drought, and bushfire risk in eastern Australia, and floods in California, Peru, and Chile - and accelerating sea level rise, causing more extreme coastal inundation.

The findings, according to Dr. Ariaan Purich of Monash University's School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment and a report co-author, could have far-reaching implications for the global climate system.

Prof Matt King, director of the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, called it a "serious and concerning piece of work" by well-known scientists, and added that it was more "bad news" about Antarctica's potential contribution to sea level rise.

"There are a lot of uncertainties in terms of Enso's future, and this is another one to be concerned about," he said.

A modeling study published last year suggested that stronger El Nio and La Ninna events caused by global warming could be detected in the eastern Pacific Ocean by 2030, decades earlier than previously predicted.

Sea ice around Antarctica hit a record low this year, with scientists reporting "never having seen such an extreme situation before."

Although changes in sea ice melting do not directly affect sea levels, scientists believe that their loss exposes ice sheets and glaciers to waves, hastening their disintegration.

Also Read: Climate Change: Antarctica and Arctic Simultaneously Experiencing More than 30 to 40 Degrees Celsius Increase in Temperature

The Arctic In A Changing Climate

Temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at a rate three times that of the global annual average, driving many of the changes that are taking place.

Snow and ice, in particular, are melting at an increasing rate.

This has consequences for both local ecosystems and the global climate system.

It contributes to rising sea levels and is likely to cause extreme weather events outside of the Arctic.

The effects of a changing Arctic climate are felt throughout the high latitudes and beyond, with global environmental, economic, and social consequences.

While the effects of climate change are felt most acutely in the Arctic, the causes are frequently linked to activities occurring outside the region.

This emphasizes the importance of raising global awareness of Arctic climate change and incorporating Arctic issues into global frameworks and conventions.

As a result, the Arctic Council and its Working Groups are working closely with the Council's Observer states and organizations, as well as other stakeholders, to address the implications of a changing Arctic climate.

Communities can reduce emissions and improve air quality by developing and implementing practical Arctic green energy solutions.

The Arctic Council fosters knowledge exchange and assists small and remote Arctic communities in making the transition to renewable energy.

Related article: Climate Crisis: Ground Temperatures Reaches 118 Degrees in the Arctic Circle