25% Chance of Snow Up for Kansas 5 Years After its Last White Christmas

A 25% chance of holiday snow is forecast for Kansas. The last white Christmas in the state was 5 years ago.

As the pattern is poised to become more active, several systems are being monitored. Instead of rain, weather systems in December might focus on ice and snow. Since December is the one time of the year when most people enjoy the snow, could this result in a "White Christmas"?

As they are receiving inquiries about "White Christmas," the National Weather Service published a tweet on Monday.

Already getting some questions about the chances for a white Christmas...while it is too early too be specific with the forecast we can say it does look to be colder than normal. Climatologically in KC the chance for a white Christmas is about 25%.#OnlyOneInEveryFour pic.twitter.com/dVR4nNTgW2
— NWS Kansas City (@NWSKansasCity) December 5, 2022

System 1: Today

A little drizzle will be brought by this small system, mainly to areas south of Kansas City. Some of the drizzles can reach southern Kansas City. Since the temperature will be above freezing, icing is not anticipated. As there will only be a trace to 0.02 inches of rainfall, roads may become damp to wet in drizzle areas.

System 2: Thursday

The likelihood of rain is 100%, and the temperature will be in the 40s or even 50s. The morning will bring the heaviest rain, which will be followed by periods of light to moderate rain.

Any ice or snow that does form will only cover a small patch of land in Iowa's northwest. As it enters Wisconsin, the snow is probably going to lose strength.

The rainfall from this second system will range from 0.25 to 0.75 inches, or roughly 1/3 of the monthly average of 1.57 inches. The sums from Tennessee and Oklahoma will be higher. As almost every location on the map below is experiencing some level of drought, the rain will be beneficial wherever it falls. The level of drought has largely decreased from level 2/3 of 5 down to level 1/2 of 5. Around Kansas City, there is still a section with 3 out of 5 drought.

The area's drought is subsiding because there has been as much rain as of October 24 as there was from July 1 through October 23. Having said that, the region has still received more than 7" less rain since July 1 than usual, so a string of storm systems is encouraging.

System 3: Coming Monday and Tuesday, December 13 and 14

Experts say that this storm system appears to be quite large. Currently, it appears that Kansas is on the warmer side of the storm, which means there will likely be a brief period of rain and possibly thunderstorms. From Oklahoma and Arkansas, as well as points south and east, severe weather is possible. There is a good chance of severe weather in the area. The northern Plains, possibly as far west as Nebraska, are likely to experience snow. Even if this storm tracks further south, we'll probably still experience only rain. It might rain between 0.25 inches to 1 inch.

System 4: Next Weekend, December 16 Through 20

After the third storm system, colder air will enter. Thus, the fourth system's snow is now a possibility.

Between December 22 and 24, a fifth system could form. There are therefore one to two possibilities of snow before Christmas. This could also be snow. For there to be a "White Christmas," there must be at least one inch of snow on the ground. Kansas typically has a 10% to 25% chance of experiencing a "White Christmas." Currently, the region is near the upper end of that range for this year, 41 KHSB Kansas City reports.

Drought in Kansas

According to the US Drought Monitor, the majority of Kansas is still at D4 intensity, or "Exceptional Drought." While a large portion of the state is classified as D0 or "Abnormally Dry" and D1 or "Moderate Drought," there is still a large portion that is classified as D2 and D3.

Health Today in Kansas

In McPherson, where all levels of drought (from D0 to D4) are felt, allergens are at low levels, except for dust and dander which will remain at high levels today and tomorrow.

While most outdoor activities could be manageable, pool activities as well as outdoor home and garden activities such as composting, lawn mowing, and outdoor entertaining could prove to be challenging endeavors as the weather is in poor condition for such activities, according to AccuWeather data.