What Does China's Energy Crisis Mean for the Country's Emission Goals?

The world's largest emitter is investing more in coal due to its energy dilemma: drought and sweltering heat for two months brought China an energy security problem.

For instance, the southwest province of Sichuan depends on dams to provide around 80% of its electricity, making the development of hydropower essential to China's achievement of its net-zero emissions objective by 2060.

(Photo : JOSH EDELSON/AFP via Getty Images)

China's Reliance on Coal

Beijing's political vocabulary has changed in response to the energy crisis. The government now declares that energy security is a more vital national goal than the switch to renewable energy. The government funds a fresh round of coal-fired power plants to fulfill demand.

This most recent surge in the use of fossil fuels is a climate change emergency since China is responsible for almost a third of the world's carbon dioxide emissions.

Since 2014, China has been reducing its reliance on coal. Before that year, however, the rise of coal consumption had been progressively flattening.

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Emission Goals

(Photo : Erping Sun)

China will attain peak emissions by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2060, according to President Xi Jinping, who presented China's "dual carbon" objective during the United Nations General Assembly in September 2020.

The deadline for achieving this target was accelerated a few months later. China's coal consumption will reach its pinnacle in 2025, Jinping claimed at a gathering of world leaders.

However, the decline in coal consumption began to reverse in 2021, with a rise of 4.6% yearly, the greatest growth rate in ten years.

In China, work on more than 33 gigawatts of coal-fired power generation, including at least 43 new power plants and 18 new blast furnaces, began in 2021. It is approximately three times higher than the rest of the globe and is at its highest since 2016.

Then, in 2022, we saw the worldwide coal market soar due to the geopolitical unrest caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the economic recovery following the epidemic. In response, Beijing raised domestic coal output in the first half of 2022 with double-digit growth.

Energy Security Crisis

China has indeed had energy security crises in the past few years. Numerous provinces faced "power cutbacks" last year, which were partially brought on by long-term decreases in coal output from 2016 to 2020.

The Chinese Communist Party's organ, the People's Daily newspaper, declared in reaction to the crisis that "the rice bowl of energy must be held in your own hands." Energy security was also referred to as an issue of national destiny by Chinese Energy News.

Beijing, torn between green energy pledges and depleting energy supplies, began to view green energy as a secondary objective that could be abandoned after complete energy security.

Ambitious Goal

China's climate ambitions are in tension with the push for new coal generation. China's 13th Five Year Plan specifies that the maximum power produced by coal-fired facilities is 1,100 gigawatts.

According to the Global Energy Monitor, China now has 1,074 gigawatts of coal power in use, but more than 150 gigawatts of additional projects have either been announced or given permission.

To fulfill the growing demand and improve energy security, the China Electricity Council-the industry body for China's power sector-recommends that the nation attain 1,300 gigawatts of coal-fired power in 2030. More than 300 other plants would be constructed if this were to happen.

Stopping Coal

China is anticipated to stop using coal by 2050 to achieve its climate goals. However, the more resources put into it, the more difficult it will be for China to abandon fossil fuels.

We won't be able to stop climate change, according to Lancaster Environment Centre Professor David Tyfield, "unless China decarbonizes."

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