Estimation of Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Fossil Fuels Becomes a Breakthrough

A group of scientists spearheaded first by the University of East Anglia (UEA) has made a significant advance in monitoring environmental changes in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels more promptly and often.

Gross US emissions of greenhouse gases have reduced by 7% since 1990.

Emissions can fluctuate from year to year owing to changes in the economy, fuel prices, and other reasons.

CO2 emissions in fossil fuels

(Photo : Lukas Schulze/Getty Images)

They evaluated localized fossil fuel CO2 decarbonization during the Covid-19 lockdowns of 2020-2021 in a paper published today, utilizing air CO2 and oxygen (O2) readings from the Weybourne Atmospheric Observatory on the UK's North Norfolk coast.

The estimate employed a novel approach for distinguishing CO2 signals in the atmosphere from those emitted by land plants and fossil fuels.

Previously, fluctuations in regional-scale fossil fuel Carbon dioxide emission could not be quantified with high precision and in near real-time.

Existing atmospheric-based approaches have mostly failed to separate fossil fuel CO2 from huge natural CO2 fluctuation, requiring estimates of changes, such as those happening in reaction to lockdowns, to rely on indirect data sources, that can take several years to gather.

The atmospheric O2-based method, which was published in the journal Science Advances, agrees well with three shorter wavelengths UK emissions statistics given during the pandemic by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, the Global Carbon Budget, and Carbon Monitor, which used various methods and research configurations, such as those depending on the power usage, as per ScienceDaily.

Importantly, in addition to being independent of the other estimations, this technique may be calculated significantly faster.

Currently, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are officially reported using a "bottom-up" technique, combining emission factors with energy statistics to determine emissions.

These are then aggregated into global assessments of predicted greenhouse gas (GHG) levels in the atmosphere via anthropogenic emissions and operations, such as residential structures, cars, and industrial operations.

However, inventories can be unreliable, particularly in less developed nations, making meeting climate objectives more challenging.

It can potentially take years to perform inventory evaluations, and the uncertainties are significantly bigger at the regional scale, or on a daily or weekly basis.

A "top-down" strategy based on air observations and modeling is an alternate technique for calculating GHG emissions.

For several significant GHGs, such as methane and nitrous oxide, the UK emissions inventory is already successfully informed and supported by independent top-down evaluations.

However, due to the difficulty in differentiating CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and land plant sources in the atmosphere, this has never been possible for CO2, the most critical GHG for climate change.

"The time it takes for inventories to be completed makes it difficult to characterize changes in emissions that come rapidly, such as the decreases linked with the Covid pandemic lockdowns," Dr. Pickers added.

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Sources of greenhouse gases

In the United States, the main source of greenhouse gas emissions from human activity is the use of fossil fuels for power, heat, and transportation, as per EPA.

Transportation (27% of 2020 greenhouse gas emissions) - The transportation industry produced the most greenhouse gas emissions.

Transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions are mostly caused by the use of fossil fuels in our automobiles, trucks, ships, trains, and planes.

Over 90% of transportation fuel is petroleum-based, with the majority of it being gasoline and diesel.2

Electricity generation (25% of 2020 greenhouse gas emissions) - Electricity generation is the second greatest source of greenhouse gas emissions. Approximately 60% of our power is generated by the combustion of fossil fuels, mostly coal and natural gas.

Industry (24% of 2020 greenhouse gas emissions) - Greenhouse gas emissions from industry are mostly caused by the use of fossil fuels for energy, as well as by specific chemical processes required to make things from raw materials.

Commercial and residential (13% of 2020 greenhouse gas emissions) - Greenhouse gas emissions from enterprises and residences are principally caused by the use of fossil fuels for heating, the usage of some greenhouse gas-containing goods, and waste disposal.

Agriculture (11% of 2020 greenhouse gas emissions) - Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are caused by cattle, agricultural soils, and rice production.

Land Use and Forestry (13% of 2020 greenhouse gas emissions) - Land areas may either operate as a sink (absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere) or as a source of greenhouse gas emissions.

Since 1990, managed forests and other lands in the United States have been a net sink, absorbing more CO2 from the atmosphere than they release.

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