Crop Models Predict World Food Production when Population Touches 9 Billion

The world's population is expected to reach about 9 billion by 2050. Now, a team of researchers has developed computer models that can help predict how much food the world will produce in the next few decades.

Previous research on the subject has shown that by the end of the century, half of the world's population will face a major food crisis, and that most of the people suffering from it will be people living near the equator. Climate change has been cited as a major cause for this food shortage.

Now, a team of researchers from Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project have been able to integrate various factors that can affect food production into one model that can predict food production.

"Quantifying uncertainties is an important step to build confidence in future yield forecasts produced by crop models. By using an ensemble of crop and climate models, we can understand how increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, along with temperature increases and precipitation changes, will affect wheat yield globally," said Bruno Basso, Michigan State University ecosystem scientist and AgMIP member.

The model is called System Approach for Land-Use Sustainability (SALUS) and can accommodate details such as crop rotation, fertilizer use, irrigation, and assess their roles in food production. The model was developed by Joe Ritchie from Michigan State University and Basso. Researchers say that the information from these models can help countries develop strategies to increase their crop production and manage greenhouse gases.

"We can change the scenarios, run them simultaneously and compare their outcomes," Basso said in a news release. "It offers us a great framework to easily compare different land-management approaches and select the most efficient strategies to increase crop yield and reduce environmental impact such as nitrate leaching and greenhouse gas emission."

The study included estimates of wheat production from 27 different crop models. The researchers used SALUS to predict how much factors such as climate change, rainfall and carbon dioxide emission will affect wheat production in different regions of the world.

The study is published in the journal Nature Climate Change.